2025: The Year of Quantum Computing

Fault-tolerant quantum may still be years away, but the investable opportunity is here now, across cybersecurity, networking, middleware, and sensing.

Here’s where the quantum stack is forming, and where Notion Capital is looking to invest before 2030.

– Fault-tolerant, cryptography-relevant quantum is still ~5-10 years away, but investable companies are being built now in the stack above hardware.

– The biggest near-term driver is cybersecurity: “harvest now, decrypt later” makes quantum-safe networking and key management urgent today.

– The UK and Europe has genuine home-field advantage in research, talent, and spin-outs.

On London’s South Bank, a few minutes’ walk from Waterloo Station, look through the windows of IBM’s office and you’ll see something that looks like an overwrought chandelier encased in glass.

That’s IBM Quantum System One, the first circuit-based commercial quantum computer, launched in January 2019.

Most of what you’re looking at is the cryogenics keeping the computer cool, because these things are fragile. They need to be very cold (around -273°C) to work, and even a tiny bit of heat or vibration messes them up. That’s why Elon Musk, only partly in jest, suggested that “Quantum computing is best done in the permanently shadowed craters on the Moon.”

The fact that you can see a quantum computer from the pavement tells you that quantum is no longer confined to the lab. The UN General Assembly designated 2025 as the International Year of Quantum Technology and Science, celebrating the 100th anniversary of the discovery of quantum mechanics. It’s more than a neat milestone. Quantum technology is moving from experimentation to practical and investible applications with commercial roadmaps.

As a partner at Notion Capital and CEO of Arqit, I split my time between the venture side and the sharp end of quantum cybersecurity. I want to answer a few questions in this piece:

– Do we have to wait for a fully error-corrected, cryptography-breaking quantum computer before meaningful companies can be built?

– Does the UK and Europe have an advantage?

– And where, specifically, is Notion Capital looking to invest as this new technology emerges?